Documents found
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2314.More information
This paper analyzes the way in which internal forces are likely to affect Soviet foreign policy over the next few years. Four developments are examined: potential Soviet petroleum shortages, the growing Soviet Muslim population, the slowdown in the rate of economic growth in the Soviet Union, and the imminent post-Brezhnev succession struggle. The question is posed: Will these factors soon impel the Soviet Union toward foreign expansion and adventurism?It is our conclusion that two of these factors, the leveling off of oil production and the rapid growth of Soviet Muslims, are not likely to have a strong influence on Soviet foreign policy. On the other hand, the decline in growth rates and the demise of Brezhnev are likely to have a major impact on future Soviet policies. The Soviet system is not experiencing a terminal crisis, but it is definitely laboring under growing burdens. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that this will necessarily result in foreign expansion. A new, rejuvenated leadership may well seek a relaxation of tensions, as it did upon Stalin's death in 1953, so as to create favorable conditions for dealing with its pressing problems. The future remains highly uncertain. International developments will be at least as important as domestic factors, and much will depend upon the policies adopted by Western governments.
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2318.More information
This article attempts to identify the great issues which have formed the mainstay of the strategic literature over the past twenty-five years. Its is essentially designee to acquaint the student with the major works and debates which have been published or discussed over the same period of time. The only new debates seem to bear on the ecological consequences of a nuclear war, and on the resurgence of the pacifist movements. The last section deals with the major issues of the future, such as outer space, ballistic missile defense, and the potential increase of the risks of a conventional war due to the progress of technology.