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Migration is often conceived and analyzed as a single and unidirectional movement, from a country of origin to another destination country. In fact, international migration trajectories are complex, often involving a series of returns to and from the home country before a long-term definitive move to the destination country. The potential role of short stays in the destination country in permanent migration is thus rarely addressed in the quantitative study of the determinants of international migration. Based on data collected as part of the “Migration between Africa and Europe” project, this study examines the effects of short-term stays on long-term migration, taking into account other known determinants of migration. The results, based on discrete-time survival analysis for the period 1951-2008/2009, indicate that short-term stays have a positive effect on long-term migration for the three flows considered, although this effect is much more important in the case of the Congolese than of the Ghanaian and Senegalese migrants in the study. The effect of short-stay migration also depends on the calendar year for Congolese migrants, while this interaction is not significant for their Senegalese and Ghanaian counterparts. We conclude that the context within the country of origin, as well as its evolution over time, can modify the relationship between short-term and long-term migration.
Keywords: Migration internationale, Courts séjours, Migration durable, Afrique, Europe, International migration, Short stay, Long-term migration, Africa, Europe