Documents found
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24981.More information
Design flood estimates at ungauged sites or at gauged sites with short records can be obtained through regionalization techniques. Various methods have been employed in different parts of the world for the regional analysis of extreme hydrological events. These regionalization approaches make different assumptions and hypotheses concerning the hydrological phenomena being modeled, rely on various types of continuous and non-continuous data, and often fall under completely different theories. A research seminar dealing with " regional estimation methods in hydrology " took place in Lyon during the month of May 1997, and brought together various researchers and practitioners mainly from France and the Province of Quebec (Canada). The present paper is based on the conferences and discussions that took place during this seminar and aims to review, classify, comparatively evaluate, and potentially propose improvements to the most prominent regionalization techniques utilized in France and Quebec. The specific objectives of this paper are :· to review the main regional hydrologic models that have been proposed and commonly used during the last three decades ;· to classify the literature into different groups according to the origin of the method, its specific objective, and the technique it adopts ; · to present a comprehensive evaluation of the characteristics of the methods, and to point out the hypotheses, data requirements, strengths and weaknesses of each particular one ; and · to investigate and identify potential improvements to the reviewed methods, by combining and extending the various approaches and integrating their particular strengths.Regionalization approaches adopted in France include the Gradex method which represents a simplified rainfall-runoff model which provides estimates of flood magnitudes of given probabilities and is based on rainfall data which often cover longer periods and are more reliable than flow data (Guillot and Duband, 1967 ; CFGB, 1994). It is based on the hypotheses that beyond a given rainfall threshold (known as the pivot point), all water is transformed into runoff, and that a rainfall event of a given duration generates runoff for the same length of time. These hypotheses are equivalent to assuming that, beyond the pivot point, the rainfall-runoff relationship is linear and that the precipitation and runoff probability curves are parallel on a Gumbel plot.In Quebec (and generally in North America), regional flood frequency analysis involves usually two steps : delineation of homogeneous regions, and regional estimation. In the first step, the focus is on identifying and regrouping sites which seem sufficiently homogeneous or sufficiently similar to the target ungauged site to provide a basis for information transfer. The second step of the analysis consists in inferring flood information (such as quantiles) at the target site using data from the stations identified in the first step of the analysis. Two types of " homogeneous " regions can be proposed : fixed set regions (geographically contiguous or non-contiguous) and neighborhood type of regions. The second type includes the methods of canonical correlation analysis and of the regions of influence. Regional estimation can be accomplished using one of two main approaches : index flood or quantile regression methods.The results of this work indicate that the philosophies of regionalization and the methods utilized in France and Quebec are complementary to each other and are based on different needs and outlooks. While the approaches followed in France are characterized by strong conceptual and geographic aspects with an emphasis on the utilization of information related to other phenomena (such as precipitations), the approaches adopted in Quebec rely on the strength of their statistical and stochastic components and usually condense the spatial and temporal information to a realistic functional form. This dissimilarity in the approaches being followed on either side may be originated by the distinct topographic and climatic characteristics of each region (France and Quebec) and by the differences in basin sizes and hydrometeorologic network densities. The conclusions of the seminar point to the large potential of improvements in regional estimation methods, which may result from an enhanced exchange between scientists from both sides : indeed, there is much to gain from learning about the dissimilarities between the various approaches, comparing their performances, and devising new methods that combine their individual strengths. Hence, the Gradex method for example could benefit from an increased utilization of regional flood information, while flood regionalization methods utilized in Quebec could gain much from the formalization of the use of rainfall information and from the integration of an improved modeling of physical hydrologic phenomena. This should result in the enhancement of the efficiency of regional estimation methods and their ability to handle various practical conditions.It is hoped that this research will contribute towards closing the gap between French and Quebec literature, and more generally between the European and the North American hydrological schools of thought, by narrowing the large literature that is available, by providing the necessary cross-evaluation of regional flood analysis models, and by providing comprehensive propositions for improved approaches for regional hydrologic modeling.
Keywords: Modèle régional, crue, analyse fréquentielle, gradex, modèle débit-durée-fréquence, corrélation canonique, régression, indice de crue, précipitation, débit, Regional model, flood, frequency analysis, gradex, flow-duration-frequency model, canonical correlations, regression, index flood, rainfall, runoff
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24982.More information
The objective of this text is to try to understand the widespread belief in the existence of miracles in a world otherwise dominated by science and technology. This paper is divided into five parts. Firstly, we present various surveys which encompass the question of the belief in miracles, while also defining the phenomenon per say. In consideration of the fact that the prayer is at the very heart of the miraculous process, the analysis of its efficiency is discussed in the second part of the text. Subsequently, we examine the functioning of the seemingly inexplicable events by referring to the miracles which would have occurred in the town of Lourdes. In the fourth part, we ponder on the possibility of reconciling science and religion. Finally, the last part of this text is constituted of three subsections: four methodological criticisms regarding the efficiency of prayer, an overview of the apparent failure to assess the notions of randomness and probability when attempting to understand the origin of miracles, and lastly, we present six hypotheses in an effort to offer an alternative to the explicatory models provided by the Church.
Keywords: Miracle, guérison, efficacité de la prière, science, religion, Miracle, healing, effectiveness of prayer, science, religion
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24983.More information
AbstractThis paper argues that in the 1930s Canada Steamship Lines (CSL), in order to sell its cruise ships and luxury hotels, developed and sold an image of Québec as a simple, premodern folk society. It examines CSL's promotional literature and, further, shows how the tourist market CSL created involved others in the construction of this image. Québécois anthropologist and folklorist Marius Barbeau contributed a book of folklore for CSL, and the company worked with the Government of Québec in the handicrafts revival. What united these diverse actors was an antimodern belief that there existed an authentic, true and typical Québecker, the essential core of the nation: the rural habitant.
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24984.More information
Keywords: Hubert Aquin, interprétation, lecture littéraire, communauté interprétative, usage politique, féminisme, nationalisme, littérature nationale (Québec), domination, émancipation
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24985.More information
Following Spivak’s model of “crossing borders” and “planetarity”, this article compares two trauma life writings: Wab Kinew’s The Reason You Walk and Johannes Anyuru’s En storm kom från paradiset [A Storm Blew in from Paradise]. They negotiate transcultural identity construction and the intergenerational impact of colonialism, drawing respectively on Jewish philosophy of history, decolonization theory, and Indigenous Anishinaabe and Blackfoot worldviews. Deconstructing Eurowestern linear thinking, they reflect on the power of the moment and ongoing relational reciprocity. In this way, they embrace equity, diversity, and inclusion, and encourage planetary, transcultural, and decolonizing circles of conversation.
Keywords: Indigenous literature, Black literature, decolonization, transcultural identity, trauma life writing
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24986.More information
Grounded in performance theories and Indigenous methodologies, this essay focuses on the 2021 solemn service in Uppsala Cathedral, when the Church of Sweden apologized for its historical complicity in the colonization of Sápmi. The essay discusses key rhetorical features of the Archbishop’s apology and analyses how the service incorporated Sámi visual, material, oral, and performance cultures. Of specific interest are five Sámi testimonies about settler colonialism and artist Anders Sunna’s redesign of the sanctuary. To tease out the contextual specificities (and limitations) of the apology and situate it as part of unfolding decolonial processes across the circumpolar North, the essay draws selective comparisons to Canada’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 2008 formal apology to First Nations, Inuit, and Métis Peoples.
Keywords: Sámi people, Church of Sweden, Indigenous testimonies, performance, Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada
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24987.More information
This study evaluates the efficiency of cross hedging with single stock futures (SSF)contracts. We propose a new technique for hedging exposure to an individual stockthat does not have options or exchange-traded SSF contracts written on it. Ourmethod selects as a hedging instrument a portfolio of SSF contracts which areselected based on how closely matched their underlying firm characteristics are withthe characteristics of the individual stock we are attempting to hedge. We investigatewhether using cross-sectional characteristics to construct our hedge can providehedging efficiency gains over that of constructing the hedge based on retum correlationsalone. Overall, we find that the best hedging performance is achieved througha portfolio that is hedged with market index futures and a SSF matched by bothhistorical return correlation and cross-sectional matching characteristics. We alsofind it preferable to retain the chosen SSF contracts for the whole out-of-sampleperiod while re-estimating the optimal hedge ratio at each rolling window.
Keywords: Single stock futures, hedging, Universal Stock Futures, OneChicago, CATOU, gestion du risque, Universal Stock Futures, OneChicago
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24988.More information
The purpose of this article is to develop a new approach of the current discussion on the insurance on the “new risks”. It makes a point on the notions of risk and uncertainty in order to propose an alternative interpretation of this new risks universe. The article then goes on to evaluate the insurability criteria in uncertainty and studies the question of the emerging financial tools to cover large scale ambiguous risks. Lastly, it concludes by defining an “uncertainty management”and lays the foundations of an economic theory of insurability in such context.
Keywords: Incertitude, risques catastrophiques, assurance, mutualisation, principede précaution, développement durable, Uncertainty, catastrophic risks, insurance, mutualization, precautionnary principle, sustainable development