Résumés
Résumé
De façon générale, l’évaluation du risque repose sur des outils actuariels qui incluent des facteurs statiques ou historiques tels les antécédents criminels. La présente étude réexamine la relation entre les antécédents criminels et la récidive violente/sexuelle en tenant compte de l’aspect dynamique de la carrière criminelle. L’étude pose la question suivante : est-ce que les trajectoires criminelles informent sur les risques de récidive ? L’étude actuelle est basée sur une quasi-population de délinquants sexuels adultes incarcérés dans la province de Québec entre 1994 et 2000. Des analyses de classes latentes ont été réalisées afin d’identifier les trajectoires criminelles violentes/sexuelles. Les analyses de survie indiquent que les trajectoires criminelles informent sur les risques de récidive violente/sexuelle tout en montrant des limites importantes de la prédiction actuarielle.
Mots-clés :
- Délinquants sexuels,
- trajectoires criminelles,
- prédiction actuarielle,
- récidive,
- évaluation du risque,
- dangerosité,
- âge,
- antécédents judiciaires
Abstract
Generally speaking, risk assessment tools are based on static or historical “predictors” such as criminal history. This study revisits the relationship between the criminal history and violent/sexual recidivism using a longitudinal perspective by taking into account the dynamic aspect of criminal careers. More specifically, the study attempted to answer the following question : Are offending trajectories carrying any predictive value to help informing about the risk of reoffending following prison release ? The study is based on a quasi-population of adult sex offenders incarcerated in the province of Quebec between 1994 and 2000. Latent class analyses were performed to identify the presence of offending trajectories. Survival analyses showed that offending trajectories do inform about the risk of violent/sexual reoffending, but in doing so, highlighted some important limitations of current actuarial prediction methods.
Keywords:
- Sex offenders,
- criminal trajectories,
- actuarial prediction,
- recidivism,
- risk assessment,
- dangerousness,
- age,
- criminal record
Resumen
De manera general, la evaluación de riesgo reposa sobre herramientas actuariales que incluyen factores estáticos o históricos tales como los antecedentes criminales. Este estudio reexamina la relación entre los antecedentes criminales y la reincidencia violenta/sexual tomando en cuenta el aspecto dinámico de la carrera criminal. El estudio intenta responder a la siguiente pregunta : ¿las trayectorias criminales informan sobre los riesgos de reincidencia ? El presente estudio se basa en una muestra de delincuentes sexuales adultos encarcelados en la provincia de Quebec entre 1994 y 2000. Se realizaron análisis de clases latentes con el fin de identificar las trayectorias criminales violentas/sexuales. Los análisis de persistencia muestran que las trayectorias criminales informan sobre los riesgos de reincidencia violenta/sexual, pero muestran ciertos límites de las predicciones actuariales.
Palabras clave:
- Delincuentes sexuales,
- trayectorias criminales,
- predicción actuarial,
- reincidencia,
- evaluación de riesgo,
- peligrosidad,
- edad,
- antecedentes judiciales
Parties annexes
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