Volume 59, Number 1, mars 1983

FR:

Cet article constitue une première tentative pour étudier la manière dont les importations interagissent avec les facteurs primaires dans la technologie française. Nous faisons usage d’une fonction de coût transcendantale à deux extrants et trois intrants, et nous rejetons les fonctions traditionnelles en raison de leur inaptitude à expliquer le processus de production. Nous concluons que la valeur ajoutée n’est pas le produit exclusif du capital et du travail et que tous les intrants sont des substituts l’un pour l’autre. Le modèle justifie le traitement des importations comme facteurs de production.

EN:

This is a first attempt to study the structure of the French economy and the way imports interact with the primary input factors in the French technology. New flexible econometric techniques have victimized the traditional single-output two-input functions. Herein we use a two-output three-input translogarithmic cost specification and reject the Cobb-Douglas and CES function as being inappropriate in explaining the production function. We conclude that value-added is not produced exclusively by capital and labor and, also, substitutability prevails among the three inputs which exhibit inelastic demands. As long as σ_KM > σ_LM, a further reduction of tariffs will benefit laborers. The minor divergencies between actual and fitted cost and revenue shares attest to the goodness of fit of the model and its specification incorporating imports as a factor input.

FR:

Le but de cet article est d’évaluer la pertinence du modèle de la moyenne-variance comme schéma explicatif du portefeuille domestique des banques canadiennes. Le modèle théorique entraîne certaines restrictions que nous tentons de vérifier à l’aide d’un test de chi-carré dans le cas de sept banques à charte. Les résultats indiquent que le modèle postulé ne peut être accepté.

EN:

In this paper we evaluate the mean-variance hypothesis (MVH) in the case ofthe domestic portfolios of seven Canadians banks. Following previous studies byParkin, Gray, Barrett and Courakis we test a particular version of the MVH byrestricting the objective function of the banks (presented as a negative exponentialutility function). The banks select their optimal portfolios by maximizing theirexpected utility of profit over a one period horizon. Optimal portfolios are revisedin each period. The MVH yields a number of properties which characterize theasset demands: homogeneity, additivity, symmetry and non-negativity of ownexpected rate effects.

These properties are tested under the joint hypothesis that expected rates ofreturn are evaluated either by a rational expectations process or an ARIMAprocess. Chi-square tests of the overall restrictions as implied by the MVH areapplied to the data set which comprises the seven largest Canadian charteredbanks. The results indicate a strong rejection by the data of the conjectured model.

FR:

L’auteur présente et critique l’approche économique traditionnelle de la langue telle qu’on la retrouve chez Albert Breton et Jean-Luc Migué, et implicitement chez H. G. Johnson. Il souligne les conditions extrêmement restrictives qui sont implicites à ces analyses et qui sont contradictoires avec le monde réel et la réalité canadienne. L’auteur tente de démontrer que cette approche peut conduire à des conclusions toutes différentes des conclusions généralement présentées en admettant des postulats plus proches de la réalité.

EN:

The author presents and criticizes the traditional approach to the economicsof language which can be found explicitly in the writings of authors such as AlbertBreton and Jean-Luc Migué, or implicitly in the writings of H.G. Johnson, andwhich relies on the neoclassical theories of human capital, statistical discriminationand information networks. It is shown that the analyses of these economists arebased on extremely restrictive conditions which do not necessarily correspond tothe real world or to Canadian reality. The author attemps to prove that such anapproach can lead to quite different results and conclusions if other postulates,describing an alternative view of the world, are chosen to be the foundations of theanalysis.

FR:

En France il n’existe pas d’évaluation post mortem systématique des prévisions macroéconomiques. Cet article montre que les opinions des chefs d’entreprises industrielles quant à l’évolution de la production, telles que l’INSEE et la Banque de France en opèrent séparément la synthèse, ne sont pas aussi pertinentes qu’on le croit parfois. S’agissant du Baromètre de L’Expansion et de l’indicateur hebdomadaire d’activité économique du C.O.E., malgré des erreurs graves et de sérieux biais, l’auteur conclut à leur utilité, surtout pour aider à estimer précocement les tendances récentes de l’économie.

EN:

Systematic post mortem evaluation of the macroeconomic forecasts' accuracydoes not exist in France. This article shows that the performance of the qualitativesurvey forecasts amongst company managers, obtained separately by the INSEEand by Banque de France, are not very good predictors of industrial production.Turning next to the "Baromètre de L'EXPANSION" and to the composite indicator of the COE, the author proves that, despite severe biases and errors, they have some utility, especially as early and low-price estimators of the present stateof the economy.

FR:

Il s’agit, dans un premier temps, de caractériser et de situer la notion d’industrie culturelle dans le domaine plus vaste du message culturel, lui-même un sous-ensemble du champ encore plus vaste de l’information dans le secteur tertiaire de l’économie. Nous insistons ensuite sur l’opportunité d’une politique des industries culturelles qui puisse s’intégrer dans le cadre d’une politique globale et cohérente pour le Québec, face aux énormes pouvoirs culturels que détiennent les multinationales de la culture. Or, force est de constater que les données officielles de la comptabilité nationale sont peu ou pas du tout adaptées à ce champ d’activité qui, au surplus, subit une profonde mutation, imputable à la révolution technologique en cours, notamment dans le domaine de la micro-informatique.

EN:

Firstly, the object of this note is to characterize and situate the notion ofcultural industry in the larger domain of cultural messages, itself a part of the stilllarger domain of information flows within the vast tertiary sector of the economy.

We then insist on the opportunity of an economic policy directed at thecultural industries, as part of an overall economic policy for Quebec, facing theenormous cultural powers withheld by the multinationals of cultural productionand distribution.

However, the official statistics in the national accounts are simply not adaptedto economic analysis of the cultural industries in general. Moreover, this field ofeconomic activity is now undergoing a profound mutation, ascribable to the newtechnology of microelectronics.

EN:

The purpose of this paper is to examine different types of models dealingwith the question of income distribution. These models can be classified into threecategories: microsimulation models, computable general equilibrium models andintegrated macro-distribution models. In this study, we are concerned with theinvestigation of a few models of each type, the analysis of their essential characteristics and the description of their comparative advantages and disadvantages.

EN:

In this paper, we examine some of the factors that will have a major effect onthe economic cycle in the next few years. In particular, the impact of deflation,energy prices, capital costs and government deficits on income and expendituresbehaviour is discussed.

EN:

This paper provides simple descriptions and interpretations of the components found in time series: the trend, the cycle, the seasonal, the trading-day and the irregular components. Furthermore, the necessity and the justification ofseasonal adjustment are explained. It is however reminded the seasonally adjusted series should not be used for model building.

EN:

The results of any analysis of local real estate markets must be qualified interms of the long run equilibrium conditions assumed in the study. Such propertycharacteristics as: non homogeneity, durability, length of response lag time, etc.,are frequently suggested as major factors which contribute to the inefficiency ofreal estate markets. Periods of prolonged exogeneous inflationary expectations,which may be indicated by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), addfurther complexity to the analysis of real estate markets.

This paper presents a brief discussion of the factors which influence thesupply and demand for Real Estate. Special reference is made to the City ofTrois-Rivières, Québec, which is analysed over the ten year period 1971 to 1981. In this market the impact of changes in income on long run demand would appearto be negative. The effect of demographic factors, particularly population in the25 to 34 year age group, is not clear. There is some indication of a shift in supplyacross submarkets over the 1976-1979 time period.

Price changes, measured in current dollars using the Multiple Listing Service(MLS) average transaction price, increased approximately 200 per cent over arelatively short period in the early 1970s. Most of this appreciation appears tohave been lost over the longer time period of the study.

Average MLS transaction price, adjusted for inflation, fluctuated between$12,000 and $28,000 over the same period.

After appropriate qualification of the results, in terms of the data and themethodology used to analyse the data, it would appear that housing prices in theaggregated Trois-Rivières market have not increased appreciably in current orconstant dollars over the period 1971-1981 although this may not have been thecase in particular submarkets.