Volume 27, Number 1, 1996

EN:

The strength of rational choice theory and the decision models derived from its axiomatic base (e.g., expected utility, game theory, deterrence, etc.) has always depended on the degree to which the theory's underlying assumptions offer at least a close approximation of reality. Proponents of political psychology have compiled what appears to be an impressive body of evidence against the utility of theories derived from these assumptions. Decision-makers, particularly in a time of crisis, are either unwilling or unable to live up to the demands of rationality. Conflicting empirical evidence from rational choice theorists continues to fuel the debate.

In the absence of any attempt to identify areas of consensus, theoretical progress on the question of how to effectively manage international crisis mil remain elusive. In the conviction that this ongoing debate has become counterproductive to the development of crisis management theory, the following paper attempts, in part, to identify areas of consensus and to develop an alternative research agenda around Prospect Theory.

EN:

Few issues have created more tensions and uneasiness in international affairs than the idea of a nuclear armed Germany. The militarist and expansionist tradition of Germany has induced in its neighbors an underlying fear of a possible revival of her past hehavior. The apparition of nuclear weapons in the international System after 1945, and the subsequent accession of Great Britain and France to the status of nuclear powers, has added a further dimension to the German problem. During the Cold War, the issue of German nuclear weapons was rarely discussed favorably, particularly in Europe. The case was different in the United States where Germany's role in the nuclear strategy of NATO was approached with a detachment seldom found in British or Trench political literature. The demise of the East-West confrontation and the unification of Germany have encouraged many American scholars, often associated with the neorealist school, to push for the end of Germany's singularisation in the nuclear field. For them, a nuclear armed Germany, if not inevitable, could well become a source of military stability in the region. Although most of them base their arguments on the merits of selective nuclear proliferation, they adopt similarly an olympian perspective towards Germany which is markedly different from what is found in European literature. Their position of course does not reflect Washington's official view on the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This paper tries to circumscribe their line of thought and argues that it closely parallels, to a certain degree, the broader American attitude towards Germany seen as an equal and reliable ally in the evolving European security context.

EN:

This paper argues that the development towards a common migration policy in the European Union reflects the emergence of a new form of regionalism resulting from the recent structural transformations in the global political economy. The European governments are caught in a web of contradictory interests and tendencies. On one side, the logic of global economic restructuring dictates continued deregulation and flexibilisation of the labour market, implying increased high levels of immigration. On the other hand, the political backlash against globalisation pushes towards a closure of the external borders. The result is the construction of a Fortress Europe, with a set of specific cooperation agreements with the regions surrounding the European Union in order to regulate the inflow of migrants.

EN:

Albeit the end of military dictatorship, a significant part of Chile's international affairs is still conditioned by some of the great principles established at the time. In spite of this, President Patricio Aylwin's administration was able to set up a relationship with other world countries different from that imposed under General Pinochet's regime. The nomination, in May 1994, of Eduardo Frei and a new Cabinet at the head of the country has led to another series of attempts to change the way international affairs are managed. The rate of success of such attempts depends upon the ability of the government coalition to go beyond the blind acceptance of international market forces, to set up appropriate negociations for Chile's membership in various world organisations, such as APEC, Mercosur and NAFTA, and above all, to break the barriers built by the upholding of important sectors of the former military regime.

EN:

This article seeks to analyze the social impacts of the Economic and Monetary Union and to reflect on the new modalities for producing social norms within this new context. First, after pointing out limits to the nominal convergence that the treaty stipulates for the interim phase, we mil present the new forms of adjustment pursuant to the EMU and their impacts on the welfare state. We will then turn to the responses of some economists to the introduction of a single currency and coordination of budgetary policies, including fiscal federalism. We will try to show the desirability of a European welfare state that would introduce some coherence between the different levels (local, national, Europe-wide) and forms (legislative and union-management) of social regulation ; in essence, a reworking of the idea of social subsidiarity.

EN:

A typology of uncertainty reveals three dimensions: probability, vagueness, and ambiguity. At the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), terrorism has appeared as a threat to the agency's mandate, which is to ensure the harmonious development of civil air transportation. Faced with the probability that a terrorist act may occur, decision-makers in the international civil aviation System have developed an array of institutional responses. In the area of law, several instruments were created as the impact of events and techniques used by terrorists developed. In the area of management, the ICAO created a special unit reporting directly to the Secretary General and reviewed technical standards and procedures for aviation personnel. While new technologies were being deployed to reduce the probability of an illicit act, political responses were elaborated : use of the UN Secretary-Generalship, politicization of the ICAO Council, and international cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Uncertainty can be a vector of organizational development. Perception of uncertainty and the actions it brings about belong to afield of analysis of interest to the school of epistemics.