Aspects dynamiques du marché du travail au Québec

Résumé

Utilisant les données d'une enquête spéciale de Statistique Canada, l'auteur examine d'abord la dynamique du marché du travail au Québec comparativement à celle du Canada et de l'Ontario. Il étudie ensuite la situation spécifique au Québec en se concentrant sur les travailleurs déplacés et recyclés.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the dynamics of the labour market, and more precisely the dynamics of unemployment in Quebec relative to Ontario and the whole of Canada.

We first find that if it is true that there exists an important fluidity in the labour market, that fluidity is not sufficient to rapidly solve the unemployment problem. Using the data of a special Statistics Canada survey we then look at unemployment in Quebec, Ontario and Canada from a dynamic point of view. From that perspective, unemployment in Quebec seems even more dramatic than the result of conventional static analysis. Whatever the aspect we concentrate upon the proportion of workers who have lost a full time job and who have not been recalled by the same employer, the proportion of those who have not found a new job, the proportion of those who have not found a new full time job, the proportion of those who have got off the labour force, the proportion of those who have been looking for a full time job for more than six months, the score we get for Quebec is much worse than the one we get, comparing to Ontario and Canada, in a conventional static analysis.

We also examine some aspects of the job search process, in Quebec alone. We calculate a «risk of losing a job» rate, a «chance of finding a job» rate and a ranking for some specifie groups according to sex, age, education level and industry. Differences appear to be important. Maies are ranked higher than females; the younger higher than the older; the more educated higher than the less educated and service industries higher than manufacturing industries.

The analysis of these differences brings us to the conclusion that due to some special important changes in the market, the free trade agreement for example, some groups would suffer deeply.

We then look at one particular manpower program: the training and retraining policy. Only 5% to 6% of the target population get services. It is really not much. On the other hand, we know that employment promotion expenditures are less in Canada than in many other industrialized countries. These two facts, taken together, are for us a convincing argument that training and retraining policies should be improved.

This conclusion, however important it may be, should not make us forget the sources of unemployment other than the one analyzed here: unemployment due to a qualitative disequilibrium between demand and supply. The other sources of unemployment are really there in Quebec. We must continue to analyze them and fight them.