Résumés
Résumé
La littérature scientifique de la dernière décennie contient un grand nombre de travaux qui détaillent le développement des méthodes de « désagrégation » (downscaling) de l’échelle globale à l’échelle hydrologique pour tenter d’estimer les impacts du changement global sur la disponibilité et la distribution des ressources en eau. Cet article présente une revue et une synthèse des méthodologies de « désagrégation climatique » présentées dans la littérature afin de simuler les réponses régionales au changement global du climat. L’accent est mis sur les avancées récentes et sur les problèmes reliés à l’application pratique des modèles dans les études d’impact. L’article présente également une discussion des avantages et limites des différentes approches, ainsi que quelques suggestions pour l’étude future des impacts du changement global sur les ressources en eau.
Mots clés:
- désagrégation,
- changement climatique,
- estimation régionale,
- ressources en eau,
- précipitation,
- modèle
Abstract
During the last decade, a large volume of literature has been published on the development of “downscaling” methods from the global to the hydrological scale in order to estimate the impact of global climate change on the availability and distribution of water resources. The present paper proposes a comprehensive review and a synthesis of climatic downscaling methodologies presented in the literature in order to simulate the regional response to global climate change. The paper focuses mainly on recent advances in the field, and on the practical problems that may arise from the application of the various models in impact studies. The paper presents also a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the various methods. The paper concluded with some suggestions for future work dealing with the impacts of global change on water resources.
Key words:
- downscaling,
- climatic change,
- regional estimation,
- water resources,
- precipitation,
- model
Parties annexes
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