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The Oil Markets in 2003: Myth and Reality of the U.S. Hegemony, by Michel CHATELUSThis paper intends to examine what are the consequences of the Iraqi war and the military occupation of Iraq by the "coalition forces" on the oil markets at the end of the summer 2003. So far, continuity prevails over the premises of radical changes in the geopolitics of oil as announced in the "war for oil" theory. Oil prices remain high, the return of Iraq as a major producer is delayed and will be very costly, the Iraqi resources are not reserved to American firms, OPEC is still influent, and the special links between Saudi Arabia and the United States are challenged but not eut. Russia is a great beneficiary of the present situation. We are far from the building of the foundations of a securised Middle East fully integrated in an open oil market free of political interference. The short term outlook for a radical change is more one of increased instability and menace to oil supply by uncontrolled forces.
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