Volume 16, numéro 1, 2024

EN :

Nordhaus’s theory of the “destructive game” (1994) is a central analysis of the policy mix. His theory showed that a lack of cooperation between the central bank and the fiscal authorities would result in the budget deficit being higher and the inflation rate lower than either of the authorities would want. It explains indeed why Central Bank independence can lead to these suboptimal results even when the goals of monetary policy are set by the fiscal authority. But the construction of this model was based on the existence of a Phillips-type relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, which has lost its relevance in the contemporary economy. Today, the prospect of a rise in the inflation rate leads to an increase in interest rates and a subsequent rise in the unemployment rate. This paper intends to show that the main conclusions of the Nordhaus model are preserved, with a model based on an increasing relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Moreover, as in traditional macroeconomic theory, according to this version of the model, the unemployment rate is the same in steady states for different strategic equilibria.

EN :

Most migration decisions are not made by isolated individuals but by families or entire households. However, international family migration remains an understudied field. This article provides an overview of the literature on gender and family dynamics as a path to understanding the family decision to migrate internationally. The first three sections summarize the major historical trends and economic theories on the gender pay gap and give a brief overview of the neoclassical migration model and household models in economics. The central section of this article documents the models of family migration in economics and sociology. Despite the recent improvements, the analysis of family migration still lags far behind that of individual migration and can gain from incorporating gender-theories and the recent developments in household models.

EN :

This study aims to capture the co-movement between political risk and economic growth in Cyprus employing quarterly data over the time period between 1995Q1 and 2018Q4, adopting a wavelet coherence technique allowing to investigate both the short and long run causal link between economic growth and political risk in Cyprus. The outcomes obtained expose that (i) economic growth and political risk were significantly vulnerable in 2000 and 2004 at varying frequencies; (ii) political risk was an important factor for predicting economic growth in Cyprus between 2006 and 2018; (iii) economic growth causes political risk in Cyprus in the short term between 2006 and 2009. In addition, it is noteworthy that causality tests of gradual–shift and Toda-Yamamoto are utilized to verify the significance of political risk for predicting economic growth in Cyprus.

EN :

The discretionary 2018 increase in the average tariff from 2% to 12% will have broad effects across the US economy reflected in the present predicted factor shares of capital, labor, skilled labor, and energy input. Error correction estimates of a Linear Almost Ideal Demand System introduce the price of import competing goods as a proxy for the average tariff in annual 1983-2018 data. The historically large tariff increase will boost the rising capital share of income while the declining labor share accelerates and the rising skilled labor share reverses. Capital is the only winner due to the increased tariffs.