Volume 52, Number 2, avril–juin 1976

EN:

Final demand determines output in commercial non agricultural industries (Q). Employment is linked to Q by a distributed lag mechanism. In turn employment has an impact on other parts of model. In particular employment appears as a determinant of the labour supply and of the distribution of income. The latter is closely related to the structure of final demand. Hence, employment is a key-variable when one uses the model to make a forecasting exercise.

Some of the principles behind the specification and estimation of the model are discussed. For example, for forecasting purposes one must limit the size of the model. Although the specification of each equation is derived from the body of accepted macro-economic theory, the limited size of the model and the necessity to obtain data at the time a forecast is made impose some constraint on the specification of the equations.

In the short run, actual employment is not immediately adjusted to the level of desired employment, i.e., employment level that could minimize production costs. The quarterly changes in employment are then made proportional to the gap between desired and actual employment. Desired employment is obtained by using an inverse production function. However, the adjustment mechanism is not stable over the cycle. Various proxy variables could be used to unbody that phenomenon into the equation. The ratio of actual to potential output and the relative change in the gap between actual and potential output are combined to make an indicator of the degree of slackness or tension in the economy over the cycle. This indicator is introduced into the final specification of the equation. The equation estimated is consistent with economic theory and gives excellent forecasting results.

However the severe recession of 1974 was accompanied by an exceptional drop in productivity that could be entirely captured by the equation and some adjustments were needed to forecast employment for that particular period.

EN:

In this article we describe preliminary estimates of a model of the Canadian financial system. At the present time, the model explains the behaviour of the authorities, the chartered banks, the public, and the trust and mortgage loan companies. The variables explained include monetary aggregates, several interest rates, and the major assets of the chartered banks and of the trust and mortgage loan companies.

The model differs from existing Canadian models in that we use monthly data rather than quarterly or annual data. We think the shorter observation period permits the econometric estimates to capture the dynamic adjustment processes more accurately. In particular, the mean lags implied by our equations tend to be considerably shorter than those in existing models. Another difference with conventional models is the larger influence given to asset and liability management of the chartered banks in the determination of short-term interest rates.

The model is intended primarily for forecasting, and results are presented which indicate its usefulness in that regard.

EN:

Assuming that differences in the cost of using various job search methods are negligible, the authors suggest that the job searcher makes use of specific combinations of complementary methods, and that the composition of these combinations reflects relevant personal characteristics of the job searcher (the structure of labour supply) and the searcher's perception of the characteristics of vacancies (the structure of labor demand). This hypothesis is analysed with the help of data collected by a questionnaire mailed to 1100 blue- and white-collar workers laid off from a Montreal aeronautical firm from January 1970 to March 1971. Components analysis is used to identify four combinations of job-search methods: 1) ex-employer, trade union or employees' association, special placement service (FD1); 2) private agencies, newspaper advertisements, manpower centres (FD2); 3) parents or friends, manpower centres, newspaper advertisements (FD3); personal initiatives (FD4). An analysis of these results suggests two new concepts: standard methods, i.e. those widely and habitually used by job searchers in general; supplementary methods, i.e. those used when standard methods fail to provide what the job searcher considers a satisfactory chance of getting a job. Combination FDI is interpreted as one of supplementary methods.

The second part of the article relates 64 variables, reduced to 21 factors representing various characteristics of job searchers (personal, occupational, financial, labour market behavior), to the four combinations of search methods, in an attempt to explain part of the method selection process. It is found that users of FD2 are relatively qualified, English-speaking, mobile and interested in training, and are likely to have found a job. Users of FD3 are characterized by their youth and their flexibility in terms of jobs and mobility. FD1, by contrast, appears to have been used by older workers with family responsibilities, who are likely to have remained continually unemployed after lay-off. This is seen as supporting the interpretation of FD1 as a combination of supplementary methods. Finally, the results indicate that the difference in behaviour between white- and blue-collar workers may not be as clear-out as is suggested in the literature; the demarcation appears to rest on the level of skill in either group, rather than on the collar-status itself.

It is concluded that the data analysed lend some support to the hypothesis formulated. Combinations of search methods detected by components analysis do appear to be related to identifiable categories of job searchers. The skill level is seen as a particularly important determinant of the selection process. Moreover, it is suggested that the concept of supplementary methods is sufficiently sustained by the data to warrant further study.

EN:

In this paper one proposes a methodological framework for the study of information and decision structures in hospital management. With a particular reference to the control of nursing care demand and supply, various information and decision schemes are considered.

The concepts of disease dynamics, state of the hospital system, information, strategy are explored. It is shown how recent theoretical results dealing with the economics of information or team decision theory may serve to formulate and analyse some fundamental resource allocation problems.