Volume 55, numéro 4, octobre–décembre 1979

EN :

This study was undertaken in order to provide better insight into the dynamics of the life-cycle model and to develop a set of quantitative relationships that model the behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates. To begin, a microeconomic model was constructed which could, with a certain accuracy, reproduce behaviour patterns based on the life-cycle hypothesis and, with the aid of observed data on the Canadian population structure, generate a number of macroeconomic variables implied by this behaviour. The dynamics of this model were then examined in a number of simulations in which the effects of variations in population structure, as well as developments in incomes and the interest rate were analyzed. In a third step, we attempted to estimate certain standard consumption functions using the aggregate data generated by the model. While the estimates we obtained met current econometric criteria, these functions, especially where the interest rate was concerned, did not adequately reproduce the model used to generate the data. Finally we tested other formulations which seemed likely to yield a more acceptable representation of the basic model. This exercise, however, proved disappointing.

In conclusion, it was ascertained that the study will have to be further refined in order to integrate into the macroeconomic formulations certain adjustments that would take into account demographic variations as well as the intertemporal substitution effect.

EN :

This paper studies the migratory flows between Ontario and two Atlantic provinces of Canada, from 1960-61 to 1975-76. Search theory is used as the theoretical framework and leads to predictions as to the influence on interprovincial migratory flows of three economic variables: relative wages, employment opportunities, and unemployment insurance (UI). Proxies for these theoretical variables are used in an ordinary least squares regression based on pooled time series and cross-section data on interprovincial migration in Canada (Family Allowances' data base). The model performs poorly in explaining short term variations in the interprovincial migration rates, and the expected return migration from Ontario to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia due to UI changes in 1971 is not found. However, the model performs relatively well in explaining long term interprovincial migration flows and the 1970's reversal of the net migratory flows between Central Canada (Ontario) and the Atlantic provinces considered. Higher unemployment rates in Ontario, improved relative wages in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia as well as the UI revisions of 1971 explain a significant part of the observed change.

EN :

In the first part of this paper, the federal expenditures affecting the scientific activity of the province of Quebec, directly or indirectly, are identified. In the second part, there is an attempt to measuring the impact on the economy of those expenditures. Finally, a comparison is made with the situation that prevails in the other provinces, on that matter.

EN :

In this medium term model of the Quebec economy, output in the various sectors of the economy is determined by demand. The different components of final demand take into account the volume exports of Quebec output to the rest of Canada and to the United States. Employment in the various sectors of the economy is determined by the inverse of production function whereas output is distributed among the different economic agents. Income influences final demand. Prices and wages are in part determined endogenously whereas the labour supply, government expenditures, tax rates are treated exogenously in the forecasting period.

The results are generally good and various forecasts are made for the 1978-85 period. Three sets of assumptions define what is called a weak, medium and strong scenario. In all scenarios, we observe a productivity slowdown. If we assume the current trend in the slowdown of the public sector is maintained, employment growth is largely explained by the growth of private sector of the economy. Then, it turns out that in all forecasts, employment growth will allow any significant reduction of the unemployment rate over the forecasting period. Only a major shift in productivity trend which would allow Quebec to take a larger share of the North American market could improve the labour market in the years to come.

EN :

This article is a critical survey of the literature on strike activity. Its first part deals with the various explanations of strike activity and concludes that the effect of economic variables on strike activity is theoretically indeterminate. The second part of this text tackles the question of the effect of strike on wages and concludes that the theoretical foundations of this effect are doubtful.

EN :

The author of this paper features the main events that led to the creation of a European monetary system. In the first part, the three stages of the European monetary construction are recalled. In the second part, the author analyses the agreement that occurred on December 5, 1978.

EN :

This article presents, in the first part, a critical review of the literature on this subject. In the second part, a new grid for the classification of occupations is constructed.