Volume 56, numéro 3, juillet–septembre 1980

EN :

The Canadian merchandise trade surplus increased rather modestly in 1978 and 1979 given that the depreciation of the real exchange rate since 1977 had considerably reinforced our competitive position. With the aid of an econometric model, we try to measure the respective contributions of the factors influencing the merchandise trade balance during that period.

Our partial equilibrium simulations reveal that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, both in nominal and real terms, substantially improved the merchandise trade surplus. High capacity utilization rates in Canada had a substantial impact on the trade balance through a large increase of imports, especially imports of producers' equipment, and through a significant reduction of exports of manufactured goods other than automotive products.

Excluding the automobile sector, which has experienced a "structural" change in the United States, cyclical divergences between the two countries did not influence substantially the evolution of the merchandise trade account over that period. The rapid improvement of the terms of trade in 1979 strongly contributed to the increase of the nominal merchandise trade surplus. Our simulations show that the rise in the prices of certain primary commodities relative to the U.S. prices of manufactured goods was an important factor behind the stronger terms of trade.

EN :

In this text, we apply time series techniques (Box-Tiao) to isolate the influence of the Parti québécois' electoral win of November 1976 on the financial and economic costs of the Québec government borrowings.

For long term bonds issue between November 1976 and February 1979, we estimated at 32.49 millions of $ at 1979 present value or 1.22% of the total amount borrowed, the supplementary financial cost. In terms of additional payments to non-Québécois holding Québec government bonds, this associated economic cost has been evaluated at 11.21 millions of $ at 1979 present value, representing .42% of total borrowings. These costs may vary with respect to inflation and exchange rates and it must be emphasized that they are based on the evolution of yield differentials between Québec and Ontario government bonds and not on their direct yields to maturity. In that respect, these supplementary costs are only relative to the situation of Ontario and it is not impossible that the Parti québécois' électoral win have displaced the lenders portfolios of Canadian provincial bonds to the benefit of the government of Ontario.

Finally, approximately two years and half following the pequist victory, the financial markets have retrieved to their former structure.

EN :

This article deals with the importance of commuting by automobile in metropolitan areas of Canada. Several characteristics of commuting trips are examined, particularly in the context of trips to work. Existing pricing arrangements are criticized and alternatives suggested. Although no single change would be optimal, some form of cross-subsidization between private and public transportation would improve efficiency.

EN :

The primary objective of income security policies is to see that resources go to those in need. Programs resulting from these policies can be evaluated for their equity and efficiency. Explicit recognition of time as a factor determining resources and needs of families modifies the traditional picture we have of an unidimensional poverty threshold. In this analysis, available time becomes thus an important parameter in the decision to supply labor. This framework is used to analyse a simplified guaranteed income program and then, to evaluate the case of an integration of the Social Welfare and Work Income Supplement programs of Quebec. Those programs are also examined for their effects they may have on family structure.

EN :

This paper examines the roles of second language oral and written skills in the determination of the earnings of a sample of Quebec men in 1971. A log-linear earnings equation is used with education and experience as additional independent variables. The main results are that it is preferable to measure language skills as precisely as possible and that both oral and written skills play a role in the earnings determination equation, but the former more so.

EN :

This paper examines the changes produced on the seasonal estimates of the X-11-ARIMA method (Dagum, 1980), when (1) the two by twelve preliminary trend-cycle estimator is replaced by that of Cholette (1979a) (now optional in the program) and when (2) the "end" weights of the seasonal three by three and three by five moving averages are modified.

The results show that the first substitution has a small but desirable effect which becomes more substantial for short series and for those with fast cyclical movements. On the other hand, the suggested replacement of the seasonal end weights would entail considerable improvements for series with stable seasonality or with much irregularity. Both modifications do not affect the properties of X-11-ARIMA in the "centre" of long series.